Risk Management in Contractor Selection Based on Express Assessment of the Probability of Work Cost Changes
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.17308/econ.2026.3/14221Keywords:
risk management, contract cost, cost management, decision rootAbstract
Subject. Methods, models, and information technologies for express risk assessment of changes in the estimated cost of design, repair, and construction and installation works.
Purpose. To develop a mechanism for assessing the probability of changes in the cost of work based on experience working with contractors.
Methodology. To achieve this purpose, we used the methodology of data mining, development and design of applied decision support systems in the form of hierarchical matrix mechanisms of comprehensive assessment (decision roots).
Results. As a result of processing 600 contracts for design, repair, construction, and installation work, we identified a decision root model. This model is a graphical tool for express risk assessment of changes in the estimated cost of repair, construction, and installation work, as well as a neural network whose hyperparameters are determined based on the decision root.
Conclusions. The decision root and neural network found in this study can be used by organizations that act as customers of design, repair, and construction and installation works for risk management when selecting a contractor.
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