Prediction of Rare Species Abundance and Distribution on the Basis of Landscape Features, Lipetsk Region Case
Abstract
The objective of this study is to identify landscape drivers of rare species' distribution, and to predict their abundance in the Lipetsk Region (Russia). Methods: we input locations of 1,165 nesting sites of 60 bird species into GIS and applied fishnet analysis with a cell size of 100 km2. For each of the 220 cells in the region, we computed the number of nesting sites and 13 landscape metrics using cartographic and remote sensing data. We explored interrelation among these variables with Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Geographically Weighted Poisson Regression (GWPR). Results: The PCA grouped landscape metrics into five factors, which explained 84% of the variability and highlighted the four most significant and independent variables (mean altitude, number of water bodies, forest cover, and area of settlements) among those tested. The GWPR model based on these variables explained 68% of variance and simulated bird species abundance across the cells. Comparison of observed and predicted values per cell highlighted under-surveyed areas and biodiversity hotspots. Conclusions: We revealed species distribution patterns and their landscape drivers. Additionally, our findings identified target areas of primary conservation attention and provided local wildlife agencies with information and tools for biodiversity monitoring and conservation planning.
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