Assessing the Vulnerability of Forestry in the Forest-Steppe and Steppe Areas of European Russia to the Most Likely Climate Change

Abstract

The purpose is to identify the main current and most likely climate change trends in the forest-steppe and steppe zones of European Russia. The article highlights forest sector risks associated with climate change and key vulnerabilities of managed forests. Materials and methods. The study was conducted on the territory of 11 regions of the Russian Federation. The relative area of plantation death by the main factors negatively affecting forests was calculated, a normalised indicator was calculated and a conclusion was drawn about the vulnerability of the system. Results and discussion. Four key factors of forest vulnerability in the region were identified: forest fires, entomaceous pests, forest diseases and unfavourable weather conditions. Vulnerability and adaptation potential of each entity of the study region of the Russian Federation were calculated. Conclusions. The article lists the most and least vulnerable regions for each factor. A comprehensive assessment of potential changes in forestry in the region, due to the increasing probability of these risks and the associated threat of change in species composition, is given. The study can be used to develop a set of forestry adaptation measures to mitigate the negative effects of climate change, related material losses and adaptation of the forestry complex to changing environmental conditions.