Mathematical Description and Calculation of the Influence of Weather Conditions on the Concentration of Pollutants and Carcinogens in the Atmosphere

Abstract

The purpose is to develop a diagnostic model for predicting the concentration of major air pollutants based on the analysis of relationships between the concentration of pollutants and atmospheric parameters of the city of Voronezh. Materials and methods. For the mathematical interpretation of the processes under study, statistical methods of relationship analysis research, regression method were used, which allowed the most accurate reflection of the essence of pollution processes on the background of changes in atmospheric conditions. Numerical data processing was carried out using MSExcel software. As input data we used climatic parameters for the period 1971-2000 according to the scientific reference book "Climate of Russia" as well as daily data on atmospheric air pollution in the city of Voronezh and data on the average daily condition of the atmosphere of the Voronezh Centre for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring for the period from 1989 to 2020; the total sample size exceeded 11000 cases. Results and discussion. The main regularities in the distribution of meteorological parameters of the atmosphere of Voronezh in different seasons of the year have been revealed. The climatic parameters of the main indicators of atmospheric conditions for the period 1971-2000 have been found. The temporal distribution of concentrations of various pollutants in different seasons of the year was analysed and the magnitude of their correlation with meteorological parameters was determined. It has been found that the close relationship between meteorological parameters and various pollutants is different. The influence of meteorological parameters on the concentration of different pollutants is sometimes opposite, i.e. increasing the values of meteorological parameters for some pollutants increases the concentration and for others the opposite reduces it. Conclusion. The work has solved an urgent practice-oriented geo-ecological problem – the diagnostic model for predicting the concentration of major pollutants from atmospheric parameters has been developed. Their regression dependences are revealed, and their reliability is assessed.