Correlations of Сhanges in Water Surface Levels in the Laptev and East Siberian Seas with Variations in the Total Momentum of Giant Planets

Abstract

An urgent problem in forecasting trends in coastal landscapes in different regions of the world's oceans is the identification of statistically significant factors of variability in their water surface levels that are invariant to the uncertain characteristics of their future climate change scenario. The purpose is to test the hypothesis put forward by the authors that, for some areas of the Laptev and East Siberian Seas, such factors include variations in the total momentum of the giant planets of the Solar System (hereafter, the "TM"). Materials and methods. Synchronous statistical relations of the factor under consideration with changes in 1993-2019 mean annual values of levels in different sections of the water area under study were studied. In order to identify the probable cause of such relationships, the dependence on variations in the total momentum of the average salinity of the upper quasi-uniform layer of such sites has also been analysed. The results of the GLORYS12V1 reanalysis, as well as information about changes in the barycentric coordinates of these planets were used as factual material. The significance of the relationships was evaluated using the method of correlation analysis and Student's criterion. The time series of the processes under consideration were presmoothed in a sliding window of 5 years. Results and discussion. The regions of the seas under study where changes in the characteristics in question occur in an antiphase fashion and their relationships to variations in total momentum are statistically significant have been identified. The results indicate that this relationship may be due to the influence of total momentum variations on water exchange between the seas under study and other regions of the Arctic. Conclusions. The validity of the hypothesis is confirmed, which makes it possible to recommend that variations in the total momentum be taken into account in the ultra-long-term forecasting of changes in the water surface level in the identified marine regions.