Risk Indicators of Negative Reactions of the Polesia Landscapes to Climate Change

Abstract

The purpose is to develop a system of indicators to assess the risk of negative landscape responses to climate change. Materials and methods. The study area is the eastern part of the Polesia landscape province. Information base: monthly average data on temperature and precipitation from 6 weather stations (2000-2021); results of space imagery of the MODIS radiospectrometer of the Terra satellite (MOD13Q1, MCD64A); thematic maps (landscapes, soil cover, vegetation). Results and discussion. A complex of indicators of negative responses of landscapes to climate change has been developed, including indicators of reduced productivity, wind erosion, fires, and invasions of alien plants. The risk of negative climatogenic reactions of Polesia natural and anthropogenic landscapes was assessed. It was found that landscapes with high risk occupy 2,7 %, with medium risk – 19,5 %, with low and very low risk – 78,0 % of the territory. The features of climatogenic reactions of landscape species are determined. Conclusions. The most vulnerable to climatic changes are agricultural landscapes, represented by arable secondary moraine and moraine outwash species. The least vulnerable to climate change are forest landscapes represented by alluvial terraced, lake-alluvial, lake-swamp species.