Assessment of the Predictive Capabilities of Vertical Air Movements

Abstract

The purpose is to investigate asynchronous relations of the moment of inertia of the Sun's barycentric rotation and pressure Laplacians over a limited area of the northern hemisphere at lags from 0 to 60 years to make a long-term forecast of the intensity and direction of vertical currents that determine the stability of the atmosphere. Materials and Methods. Data from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ERA-40 reanalysis of daily 1000 hPa surface geopotential heights for the observation period from 1948 to 2018 were used. The main research methods are graph-analytical and physical-statistical. The method of correlation analysis of the moment of inertia of barycentric rotation and pressure Laplacians in the grid nodes was used. Results and discussion. The peculiarities of the correlation relations between the fi elds of vertical currents and the moment of inertia of the Sun's barycentric rotation have been investigated and their temporal dynamics has been revealed. It was found that the best correlation of Laplasians with the moment of inertia in polar latitudes is at a shift of 29-32 years, in temperate latitudes the lag value is 25-27 years. It was noted that the closest correlations are observed in winter. In summer, the closeness of the connection is insignifi cant and has a focal character. Conclusions. A close relationship between the moment of inertia and the Laplacian has been established, which in absolute value exceeds 0.6 in some places, indicating a signifi cant infl uence of gravitational forces on the vertical air movements and the ongoing processes in the atmosphere.