Thermal Conditions of Formation and Realization of Fire-Hazardous Situations in the Steppe Regions of Northern Eurasia

Abstract

The purpose is to analyze long-term changes in the temperature regime of the steppe regions of Northern Eurasia as one of the factors of spatial and temporal heterogeneity of fi re situations. Materials and methods. The main data sources for the analysis were data from the NOAA/NCEI Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN version 4) and the FIRMS archives containing information on the daily distribution of burned areas (product MCD64A1). Results and discussion. The results of calculating the values of temperature deviations from the base period (1961-1990) for 71 weather stations in the steppe regions of Northern Eurasia and adjacent territories refl ect spatial heterogeneity in the long-term dynamics of anomalies and record the largest increase in temperatures in the Western Black Sea sector. It was revealed that the most signifi cant and widespread increase in temperatures (more than 1 °C) was observed 1991-2020 in May, August and October. An increase in the duration of warm meteorological seasons by an average of 8-10 days has been established. The absence of a close dependence of the increased fi re hazard on the intensity of the development of heat waves was revealed. A region-wide reduction in fi re areas has been confi rmed against the background of increasing favourable meteoclimatic conditions. A high variability in the seasonal distribution of fi res has been established. Conclusions. The climatic and meteorological indicators used for comparison and analysis refl ect only the degree of favorable conditions, but do not necessarily correlate with the actual activity of fi res.