Modelling and Problems of Demographic Development in Russia

Abstract

The purpose of the research is to reveal the problems, substantiate the peculiarities and approaches to modelling demographic development, make forecasts, and consider the problems and prospects for the development of the country's population. Materials and methods. The research is based on the use of statistical, literature, system-structural, graphical methods, and various mathematical forecasting methods. Statistical data from the «Demographic Yearbook of Russia» were used. During the study, a matrix model of population reproduction in Russia was developed. The model of mathematical modelling of demographic development in Russia allows us to consider not only the peculiarities of population dynamics, but also reveals modern and prospective internal relationships between modelling factors. Results and discussion. Three main types of models have been compiled. Growth models based on the population's own potential and actual population dynamics reveal various options for future population. The matrix model allows us not only to determine the population number (demographic potential) but also to calculate labour and fertility potential, as it reveals the structure of the population, the number of born children and the number of deceased people. In the model of expanded reproduction (increase in the birth rate of large families), it is possible to determine the necessary level of childbirth for simple or expanded reproduction, which allows for ensuring a stable state of the population. Conclusions. Forecasting the population of Russia reveals the severity of demographic development problems. However, the deterioration of the situation can still be avoided on the basis of conducting an adequate, based on the results of population forecasting, demographic policy.