Analysis of the Results of Parliamentary Elections in the Countries of the Near Abroad of Russia Using the Method of Multidimensional Scaling

Abstract

The purpose of the study is an integrated cross-country and cross-temporal study of the electoral space of Russia's neighboring countries. Materials and methods. The research was based on the results of national elections to national parliaments from 2007 to 2021 in the context of subnational territorial units of 11 countries bordering Russia. The indicators of party support were grouped based on their ideological orientation and attitude towards Russia. Multidimensional scaling was used to analyze the presented data as a method for reducing dimensionality. Results and discussion. The study identifi ed territories that diff er most signifi cantly within a single country in terms of electoral behavior: most often these are either capitals, or border territories, or disputed territories. If we consider electoral behavior in neighboring countries in dynamics, the picture will significantly transform: over time, in countries bordering Russia, from the point of view of electoral results, it begins to look more homogeneous. During the second electoral cycle, there is a noticeable rapprochement between Latvia and Poland, and during the third – between Eastern Poland and Lithuania, where conservative forces enjoy support. Conclusion. Russia's neighboring countries are an extremely heterogeneous region in terms of the dynamics of elec toral processes. However, the multidimensional scaling method allows us to identify countries (or parts of them) that are closest in political preferences.