Technology of Mathematical Modeling and Mapping of Geosystem Variability

Abstract

The purpose is to create a technological scheme for mathematical modeling, GIS analysis, and mapping of various aspects of spatial and temporal variability of geosystems using the example of the Baikal region. Materials and methods. The initial data for quantitative analysis were the frequency distributions of geomes by height location for individual physico-geographical regions (FGR), obtained by overlay - superimposing a digital relief map on an electronic geomes map. Statistical indicators of reliability and integrated hazard of functioning of diff erent geomes were calculated using methods of reliability theory, describing the patterns of their high-altitude distribution in the local environment. Further data processing is carried out in various directions, depending on the specifi c tasks of studying diff erent aspects of the spatial and temporal geosystems dynamics: the study of quantum levels of geome variability in height; calculation of coeffi cients of models of geome height distribution characterizing the diversity of the geo-environment; physical and geographical assessment of the high-altitude location of geomes in diff erent FGR. To illustrate, a trend analysis of spatial changes in the calculated elevation characteristics of geomes along a transect intersecting individual FGR was carried out. Results and discussion. The research quantifi es the diff erences in the features of the high-altitude distribution of geomes in territories with diff erent climatic and geomorphological characteristics, thereby highlighting possible directions of temporary changes in geomes as a result of climatic transformations and relief development. Conclusions. The technological scheme developed has good prospects for application in the evaluation and forecasting studies and modeling of geosystems.