Влияние эмиграции коренного женского населения на упущенную рождаемость в Тамбовской области

Сергей Викторович Панков

doi:10.17308/geo/1609-0683/2026/1/81-86

Authors

Sergey V. Pankov Tambov State University named after G. R. Derzhavin

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.17308/geo/1609-0683/2026/1/81-86

Keywords:

missed birth rate, emigration, female population, fertile age, Tambov Region

Abstract

The purpose is to analyze the impact of the departure of the native female population on the potential missed birth rate in the Tambov Region. Materials and methods. Based on statistical materials and calculated data for municipal districts and the region as a whole, the dependence of the possible (prospective) decrease in birth rate on the departure of the female population was considered. The study used the hypothetical value of missed births in the region during the year as a result of women leaving the region during the previous year. Results and discussion. Currently, an extremely unfavorable demographic situation has developed in the Tambov Region, which is expressed in the constant decline in the quantitative and qualitative characteristics of its demographic potential. Taking into account that the indicator under consideration directly correlates with a decrease in the departure of women of fertile age from the region, it can be assumed with high probability that these trends will continue in the short term (1-3 years). This provision will only "work" in the complex of solving the problems of increasing the overall birth rate and the positive migration balance in the Tambov Region. Conclusion. The calculations based on the indicator «Missed birth due to the departure of women of fertile age (15- 49 years)» revealed certain imbalances in the structure of the demographic potential of the Tambov Region. This indicator is practically not used in the analysis of demographic processes in the region. However, despite its probabilistic nature, its application provides the necessary information to state authorities in adjusting and implementing demographic policies in the Tambov Region.

Author Biography

Sergey V. Pankov, Tambov State University named after G. R. Derzhavin

Dr. Sci. (Geogr.), Prof. at the Department of Ecology and Nature Management of the Engineering and Technical Institute

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