Methodological Aspect of Forecasting Landscape Development in the Central Black Soil Region

Abstract

The purpose is to establish the most acceptable approaches, principles, and methods for forecasting natural-territorial complexes in Central Black Soil Region based on modern ideas about the directional dynamics of landscapes. Materials and methods. In solving the tasks set, attention was focused on analyzing the theoretical and methodological provisions of a comprehensive physical-geographical forecast and establishing the factors and leading link in landscape development. The basic foundation for landscape forecasting was information on the directional dynamics of natural-territorial complexes at the regional and local levels, obtained on the basis of fi eld observations, repeated landscape mapping, and the establishment of the state and transformation of landscapes under the infl uence of natural and anthropogenic factors. Results and discussion. Based on data on the directional dynamics of landscapes, the basic principles of forecasting natural-territorial complexes (spatio-temporal, structural-dynamic, genetic) were formulated. Taking into account the links between the calculated time frames, territorial units, and the main factors of forecasting, the criteria for short-term, medium-term, and long-term landscape forecasting are substantiated. The approaches, principles, and methods of forecasting are revealed. Conclusions. The methodological basis for forecasting landscapes in the Central Black Soil Region can be found in the established principles of the theory of directed dynamics of natural-territorial complexes. A landscape forecast can be implemented only if the specifi cs of directed landscape dynamics are considered, the established forecasting principles are followed, and forecasting methods are applied appropriately.