Demographic and Socio-Economic Crises and Catastrophes in Russia in the 19-21 Centuries and the Possible Population of the Country

Abstract

The purpose of this work is to study Russia's population losses due to demographic and socio-economic crises in the 19th–21st centuries and to analyze the possible population loss of the country at the present time. Materials and methods. The purposes and objectives of the work were revealed using statistical, historical, literary, comparative, and graphical methods and approaches. The work used information from the compilations "Population of Russia over 100 Years (1897-1997)", "Population of Russia over 100 Years" by A.G. Rashin, as well as data from Rosstat and historical sources. The features of the country's demographic development, direct, indirect, and demographic losses were examined, and as a result, a calculation of the possible population size was made. Results and discussion. The result of demographic development after the Great Patriotic War would have been a population of 386 million people. The overall result of the country's demographic development (excluding demographic losses from excess child mortality) would have been a population of 514 million people. Total direct, indirect, and demographic losses over 200 years amounted to 337 million people. Conclusions. Demographic losses were compensated quite quickly by the high birth rate of the population under the conditions of a traditional way of life. Its replacement by the Western model of life determines an acute demographic situation, which directly threatens the country's security. A radical change not only in demographic, socio-economic, and migration policies is required, but also a shift in the paradigm of the country's social development.