Climatic fluctuations in temperature and precipitation in northern Kazakhstan

Abstract

The features of climatic changes in temperature and precipitation in Northern Kazakhstan are considered. It was shown that climatic changes occur with some time delay. The basis for the construction of scenarios is the assumption that the harmonics contained in the time series of temperature and precipitation and forming these series are the result of the action of a certain factor or the sum of factors. There is reason to expect that the effect of these factors will continue in the future. Under the assumption of conservation of the main harmonics, scenarios of expected climatic changes in temperature and precipitation in the region for the period up to 2040-2050 are constructed. Knowing the features of the formation of time series of precipitation, we found and used the relationships between climatic changes in precipitation and climatic fluctuations in the parameters of the general circulation of the atmosphere (Rossby waves) revealed in the process of harmonic analysis. We have obtained that over the next 40 to 50 years the temperature in Northern Kazakhstan will decrease to the amplitude of the age-old harmonic and will approach about 2° C at the end of the period. The temperature fluctuations due to the second and third harmonics will not exceed 0.8° C. For the period up to 2050 in Northern Kazakhstan it is most likely that the amount of precipitation with minor fluctuations has now approached its maximum, and in the thirties the XXI will reach its minimum. The amplitude of oscillations is most likely ±20 mm from the norm.