Evaluation and Modeling of the Central Black Soil Region Industry Development in the Post-Soviet Period

Abstract

The purpose is to identify the characteristics, trends and factors of industrial development of the Central Black Soil Region. The insufficiently high level of industry in the Central Black Soil Region and the negative long-term trends in its development require a deep analysis of the internal causes of the development of the region's economy. Materials and methods. To achieve this goal, comparative, structural, statistical, mathematical-statistical and analytical research methods were used. The statistical information presented in the official publications of the Federal State Statistics Service – “Regions of Russia” for 2003-2019 was used. To perform the calculations, the statistical data were generalized, systematized, and structured. When modeling factors and development trends of industry, we used traditional types of regression models with their expanded economic interpretations. Mathematical modeling and economic interpretation of its results were carried out on the basis of an analysis of the relationships between the volumes of taxes, GRP, industry, agriculture, trade and the construction of the Central Black Soil Region. Results. An analysis of the coefficients of variation shows that the most stable sector of the economy in the 2000s was industry. In the models determining the development of taxes, the influence of industry on tax potential was predominant. In all models of assessing factors for the development of GRP, the importance of industry was much higher compared to other sectors of economy except trade. Taking into account the realities of modern difficult time, on the basis of our work, we can conclude that the most economically effective direction of investment development of the Central Black Soil Region is the predominant development of the industrial sector of the economy. The main areas of reindustrialization of the economy of the Central Black Soil region, in our opinion, should be aimed at improving the quality and added value of agricultural products, as well as the accelerated development of mechanical engineering and light industry sectors that provide local regional and local markets.