Modeling the Series of Average Annual Water Discharge in the Razliv River and the Promyslovaya River

Abstract

The aim of this work is to simulate the series of the average annual water discharge in the Razliv River and the Promyslovaya River using data on short-term observations. Methods. The methodology is based on the Monte Carlo method. For its implementation, data on shortterm hydrological observations of the studied rivers were used, and the hydrological features of the area were taken into account. Results and discussions. The series of average annual expenditures were modeled and the supply curves were constructed on their basis. Average long-term expenditures, standard deviations, asymmetry and variation coefficients and their ratios, autocorrelation coefficients are calculated. Conclusions. The calculated values of the mean multiyear flow rate, the coefficient of asymmetry, variation and autocorrelation differ little from the specified values (by less than 10 percent). The largest difference was obtained for the parameters of the three-parameter gamma distribution a and b: -55.10% and -33.96%. The graphs of theoretical and calculated curves of provision of average annual expenses practically do not differ, therefore, the generated series has a given distribution. Also, the calculated values have a high degree of confidence, since the theoretical characteristics are based on both the data of short-term measurements directly on the studied water bodies, and territorial hydrological features obtained on the basis of analogous rivers. One of these features is good synchronization of fluctuations in river flow among streams in the study area. The obtained data can play an important role in planning their use, as well as in various project activities to develop water use.