Mathematical Modelling of the Economy of the Central Black Soil Region

Abstract

The purpose is to identify the specifics of modelling the economy of the Central Black Soil Region (CBSR) under conditions of uneven and uncertain socio-economic development. Materials and methods. Structural-systemic, mathematical and analytical research methods were applied in the article. We used various types of matrix predictor models to model the economy of the Central Black Soil Region. The article uses statistical information provided in the official publications of the Federal State Statistics Service - "Regions of Russia" for 2019. In order to perform the calculations, the statistical data have been summarized, systematized and structured. Results and discussion. Indicators of the development of economies of the region were calculated, models of different types were built by means of indirect increments over short series of indicators of the development of an economy on the basis of a deterministic matrix predictor, their disadvantages and advantages were noted, and the accuracy of the models was evaluated. Conclusion. Mathematical modelling of the region's economy under conditions of uneven and uncertain socio-economic development on the basis of short and ultra-short series is one of the main directions of modelling complex multidimensional socio-economic regional processes as a separate method and as part of the comprehensive mathematical modelling of socio-economic development of the region.