Theoretical and empirical analysis of housing construction market and factors of its development in the region

Abstract

Importance: the dynamics of the housing construction market in the Voronezh region during the period of instability caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and sanctions of unfriendly states. Purpose: to analyze the state and forecast the development of the housing construction market in the Voronezh region and the factors affecting it. Research design: the research process used: monographic, economic-statistical, logical methods, cluster and correlation-regression analysis. Primary information was obtained from official statistical sources for the period 2014 – 2021. The composition of indicators is formed on the basis of generalization and logical processing of theoretical research. Results: it has been established that in the model region (Voronezh region) in the period of unstable socio-economic situation caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and sanctions of unfriendly states, there is a positive actual and projected dynamics of the volume of housing commissioning as the main indicator of the housing construction market development. Among the factors positively influencing the housing construction market there are steadily growing values of the average per capita income of the population and the volume of mortgage loans granted to individuals. Negative and unstable dynamics of natural and migratory population growth is observed. In general, it can be stated that currently economic and organizational factors (including measures of state support of mortgage lending) ensure the growth of housing supply and demand in the region. However, negative processes in the demographic sphere may have a negative impact on the housing construction market in the longer term.