To the question of optimum designing of building constructions

Abstract

Importance: аn anomaly in the Russian economy, where the tight monetary policy of the Bank of Russia has little impact on overall credit demand and inflation indicators. Purpose: to formulate several hypotheses explaining this trend, including issues with the Bank of Russia’s forecasting. Research design: the Bank of Russia’s modeling framework does not allow for highquality forecasting, leading to rising inflation expectations among the population due to a lack of trust in the central bank’s monetary policy. An analysis of the Bank of Russia’s modeling framework revealed that its medium-term forecasts are based on DSGE models. However, this modeling approach has been increasingly criticized by macroeconomic researchers. Despite its strengths, DSGE modeling failed to prevent and predict both the 2008 financial crisis and the European sovereign debt crisis of the 2010s. Moreover, the complexity of the DSGE models used by the Bank of Russia is relatively low, which affects the overall quality of forecasts. Results: the study identifies key issues in the Bank of Russia’s forecasting framework, the modernization of which could enhance the effectiveness of the transmission mechanism.