Prospects for foreign economic activity in the Voronezh region under global restrictions: analysis and forecast

Abstract

Importance: the parameters of the foreign economic activity of the Russian region – the Voronezh Region in relation to the state of the global economic environment. Purpose: to analyze the state and forecast the prospects for the medium term of the basic parameters of the foreign economic activity of the Russian region in connection with the global constraints of the first quarter of the 21st century. Research design: the theoretical and methodological basis for solving the stated goal are the fundamental provisions of the theory of regional economics in terms of studying the state and forecasting the basic parameters of foreign economic activity. For the purposes of the study, a monographic approach and correlationregression analysis were used using the five most common functions: linear, polynomial, power, logarithmic, exponential. The analysis was carried out on the data of a typical region, which is part of the Central Federal District – the Voronezh Region, for a long period (2000-2021), including various periods of the state of global restrictions that significantly affect the parameters of foreign economic activity. Results: the results of the study are conclusions about the prospects of foreign economic activity in the context of global restrictions: in general, the export and import of goods of the Voronezh region is balanced. The dynamics of their indicators is unevenly growing, weakly connected with the state of global restrictions, mainly further variable growth is predicted. The exception is import from the CIS countries, which do not have clearly defined actual and forecast trends. Export and import of technologies and technical services are at a low level (especially export), are not connected with the state of the global economic situation, forecasting using correlation and regression analysis is impossible. There is a systematic decrease in FDI inflows to the region, which is also predicted in the medium term.