Prospects of renewable energy development in the far East region

Abstract

Importance: this article examines the development characteristics of the renewable energy sources (RES) sector as a component of the regional economic system in the Far Eastern Federal District. Particular attention is paid to analyzing the impact of RES capacity growth on the region’s economic indicators. Purpose: to assess the current state of the RES sector in the Far East and forecast its impact on the energy sector’s GRP through 2029. Research Design: the study utilizes statistical data from Rosstat (2016-2023), along with reports from IRENA and the Russian Association of Renewable Energy. The sector’s current state was evaluated through comparative analysis and analytical processing methods, while a linear paired regression model was constructed to forecast the impact of RES capacity on sectoral GRP. Model parameters were obtained using the least squares method, with significance tested via t- and F-criteria. Results: а statistically significant positive correlation (R²=76.8%) was established between the commissioning of RES-based generation capacity and GRP growth. Forecast calculations indicate that implementing the RES development program will increase sectoral GRP by 156 billion rubles (+57% compared to 2023) by 2029, cover the projected electricity deficit of 674 MW, and strengthen the regional economy. The findings confirm the economic viability of renewable energy investments as a driver of regional development.