The foreign trade balance of Voronezh region amid shifting global and macroeconomic conditions

Abstract

Importance: the dynamics of exports, imports, and the foreign trade balance of the Voronezh Region in the context of global economic and geopolitical shifts from 2000 to 2021. The analysis covers key stages in the region’s foreign trade development amid fluctuations in global prices, sanctions, and macroeconomic instability. Purpose: to assess the current state and forecast prospects for the region’s foreign trade performance under changing global and macroeconomic conditions. Research design: а monographic method was applied to identify academic perspectives on the role of trade indicators in regional economic development. Correlation and regression analysis were applied to model export, import, and trade balance trends using five functional forms: linear, exponential, logarithmic (natural log), power, and second-degree polynomial. Data were sourced from Rosstat (2000–2021). Comparative analysis revealed how external shocks influence regional foreign trade patterns. Results: exports demonstrated resilience to external shocks – after short-term declines, growth quickly resumed, though future trends vary. Import dynamics generally follow exports but with lagged adjustments, affecting the trade balance. While the trade balance showed an overall positive trend (2000–2021), it remains unstable (R² < 0.5 for all models), with no clear short-term link to external conditions. A medium-term decline is likely due to converging downward polynomial trends in exports, imports, and the trade balance