Borrowers’ reliability: alternative forecasting techniques

Abstract

Purpose: multivariate simulation of the borrower’s financial capacity. Discussion: the creditworthiness of the borrower depends on many factors, which estimation is not easy. Most credit metrics are based on data for the last period or data on any reporting date. However, these figures are often distorted by inflation. In addition, it is difficult to determine and estimate the value of various factors during creditworthiness simulation. In this regard, the most urgent issue is alternative forecasting techniques, which allow estimating the potential financial stability of clients and thereby adjusting the level of credit risk. Results: we present creditworthiness forecasting models, giving a multivariable description of the future with the most comprehensive presentation of possible developments in proactive times.