Simulation scenarios of the economic situation based on fuzzy cognitive maps

Abstract

Purpose: the authors model the simulation scenarios of the economic situation based on fuzzy cognitive maps. Discussion: the authors essence of cognitive modeling and scenario planning, propose the system of principles of the scenarios planning; highlighted different approaches to scenario-building; described the procedure of modeling, based on fuzzy cognitive maps; gave an example of scenario planning based on fuzzy cognitive maps. Results: the authors proposed to identify on the basis of the analysis of the internal and external environment of the organization; It will allow to look systematically at the economic situation, to predict future development, to make the right management decisions; the example of scenarios planning using the FCMapper is given.