Mathematical modelling of the transmission of viruses with a long incubation period in a small-world network

Abstract

The article considers a model for the transmission of viruses in cities and within city networks, taking into account the delay caused by the long incubation period of the virus. It demonstrates the effects of such a delay as compared to pandemics without a delay. The study revealed a temporal asymmetry in the spread of the infection, which means that the time for the pandemic growth significantly exceeds the time of its ending. Model calculations for the transmission of viruses in a network of interconnected large and small cities were performed. The study determined the features of the pandemic dynamics in a city network as compared to the spread of viruses in a single city, including the possibility of re-infection of megalopolises from an external reservoir of infection. With the set delay parameters, the duration and amplitude of the pandemic increases several times in comparison with pandemics caused by viruses with a short incubation period.