Cognitive modeling of socio-economic systems: a retrospective analysis of tools and information systems

Abstract

In the current geopolitical conditions under the economic sanctions imposed on Russia, there is an objective need to form a strategic plan for the development of the economy, and for certain sectors of the economy. For strategic planning it is possible to use various methods and tools. One of the methods of strategic planning is the program-targeted method of planning, which has proven itself as an effective method of foresight. It is possible to speak about failures of planning activity, but these failures were connected not with shortcomings and application of scientifically grounded methods of planning but were connected with efficiency of the administrative apparatus which made decisions. It should be noted that it was in the period of application of science-based planning methods that our country managed to form and develop industrial production of different branches, and the issue of import substitution did not arise then, as all stages of the product life cycle were represented at all enterprises. Currently, the country is facing the problem of strategic development in the context of the imposed economic sanctions. The volume of sanctions is increasing day by day and one can only speculate on the future restrictions imposed. Therefore, there is a need to forecast activities at the level of the whole country, individual industries and enterprises. One of such methods is the method of cognitive modeling based on fuzzy logic. In recent years, the cognitive approach has been increasingly used in the management of socio-economic systems both at home and abroad. This approach involves the use of cognitive principles and methods to understand the behavior of individuals in a system, as well as the interactions and feedback loops between the various components. This article provides a retrospective analysis of the application of the cognitive method to modeling. The information systems which have been developed in our country for realization of tasks of cognitive modeling are considered. And an evaluation of existing software products is made. Also, theoretical materials on the cognitive approach in modeling are presented in order to understand the application of this toolkit for modeling socio-economic systems using elements of fuzzy logic. The material of the article can be useful for beginners in the field of cognitive modeling.