О методах оценки стратегии развития социальной сферы ресурсного региона

Abstract

The article suggests an approach to the development of modeling tools for assessing the consequences of implementing some specific region’s social sphere development indicative plan, which determines the dynamics of the population’s standard of living indicators. The possibilities of the approach are illustrated by the example of the Trans-Baikal Territory, for which the prospects of the “Strategy for the Development of the Trans-Baikal Territory up to 2030” implementation are estimated. Within the model, the demographic, the budget financing, the social and the household blocks were marked out. The mechanism of the formation of the expenditure part of the budget directed to the needs of social sectors is a decision-making algorithm based on forecasts of the incomes and needs of the industries in conjunction with the priority distribution procedures that characterize the comparative importance of particular expenditure items in the current year fiscal deficit situation. The proposed approach allows us to plan the particular branches of the social sphere more systematically and a more correct way of programming the region social sector development as a whole.