Hazard assessment of tropical cyclone structure zones based on almost periodic analysis

Abstract

An original approach to assessing the dangerous zones of the structure of tropical cyclones based on the processing of images of the dynamics of the hurricane structure proposed. In the course of the study, based on the results of processing and analyzing images of the largest and most destructive tropical cyclones in recent years, characteristic almost periods obtained, based on which criteria for assessing the danger of tropical cyclone zones in the processed images compiled. The obtained estimates compared with the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale, which made it possible to determine the classification of dangerous zones for the corresponding categories of tropical cyclone development. Unlike the hurricane scale, the proposed method allows for the operational classification in real time of a developing typhoon only based on available photo or video data on the dynamics of a dangerous natural phenomenon. The possibility of classifying the structure of tropical cyclones into zones of different levels of danger using almost periodic analysis shown, which will allow the implementation of appropriate measures to ensure safety measures in the event of emergencies caused by tropical cyclones. It should note that when using the traditional hurricane scale based on wind force to classify typhoons, additional data on the level of wind speed measurements at an altitude of about 10 m above sea level are required. In this case, the measured wind speed should recorded continuously for a minute, which is not always possible, since wind gusts, especially in stormy weather conditions, are inconsistent. For the task of predicting the dynamics of the development of the structure of tropical cyclones, key criteria for assessing the danger zones of a dangerous natural phenomenon proposed based on the results of almost periodic image analysis. The obtained estimates universalized and are independent of the size of the processed tropical cyclone image, which made it possible to obtain a deviation of the resulting calculated and actual values of the danger of cyclones according to the proposed scales within 10%.