Scientific pre-prognostication mountain rivers flowing capacity analysis as an element of region economic safety

Abstract

The paper is dedicated to the methods of acquiring pre-prognostication information for time-series that have lasting memory in consequence of the fact their levels don't meet the independent condition and so classical prognostication method might be inadequate. To receive pre-prognostication information the authors of the paper set and give reason to the algorithm of consequent R/S-analysis (on the base of rescaled range (R/S) analysis proposed by Hurst), which effectiveness was shown on time-series of mountain rives flowing capacity.