Indonesian Poker: complete game solution from the "Table Time" show

Abstract

Subject and motivation. This article provides a strategic analysis of the "Indonesian Poker" game from the popular online show "Table Time." Players flip numbered chips (1-12) based on outcomes from two dice; they may flip either the chip corresponding to the sum of the dice or the pair of chips matching the individual die values. The motivation for such analyses lies in cultivating genuine public interest in scientific research through initially entertaining context – an approach not yet documented in academic literature.
Purpose. To identify a strategy minimizing the average time to game completion. Notably, this does not guarantee victory even on average, as against the found chip-flipping strategy, even in a two-player game, the optimal response might be a suboptimal strategy – a highly counterintuitive outcome. This paradox is discussed in the paper; unfortunately, the authors have yet to find an equilibrium strategy guaranteeing average victory against any other due to the substantial (doubly exponential) complexity of all conceivable strategies in this game.
Research Design. The paper formulates several theorems that significantly reduce the computational complexity of exhaustive strategy search. The optimal strategy is then computed, proving extremely intricate in practice. This raises the question of whether an algorithmically simpler strategy exists that performs nearly as well as the optimal one.
Results. The paper provides a comprehensive description of the optimal strategy. Additionally, it reveals a subtle strategic nuance: deliberately skipping turns in certain positions based on specific dice outcomes. Then we proposed a very simple-to-use suboptimal strategy, that is losing to the optimal strategy by the narrowest margin. Both the optimal and simple suboptimal strategies substantially improve winning chances against a "naïve" player who always moves randomly.