The impact of population aging on economic growth in East Asian countries
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.17308/econ.2025.4/13361Keywords:
population structure, economic growth rates, econometric model, first demographic dividendAbstract
Subject. While East Asia's global economic significance continues to grow, the region faces the challenge of rapid population aging, which can hinder its development. Consequently, this demographic crisis requires close attention.
Objectives. To quantify the impact of aging on economic growth in East Asian countries, identify cross-country differences, and determine periods of positive and negative demographic dividends as well as the historical turning point of this influence.
Methodology. We employed analytical, statistical, and econometric methods. A wide range of sources was analyzed, including scientific journals, books, and statistical collections.
Results. We assessed the degree of population aging in East Asian countries and also analyzed the correlation between economic and demographic indicators across the region. An econometric model was constructed to evaluate the relationship between demographic and economic indicators for individual countries and the regional group from 1990 to 2019, allowing for a quantitative assessment of the first demographic dividend obtained by each country and its positive or negative impact.
Conclusions. The research demonstrates a deepening aging crisis in East Asian countries. Since the 1990s, the share of the elderly population in the region has steadily increased, with Japan becoming the country with the oldest population in the region. Overall, growth in the working-age population share stimulates an increase in GDP per capita. However, as aging intensifies, the first demographic dividend in East Asian countries is gradually diminishing, and the current demographic situation is imposing increasingly pronounced constraints on economic growth.
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