Tendencies of informal employment on the labor market

Abstract

The article presents an analysis of the structure of the labor market by the example of the Samara region in the context of identifying trends in informal employment. The study of changes in different employment groups both in Russia and in individual regions made it possible to determine the labor market reserves, to identify the reasons for informal employment and to propose directions for the development of regulation of social and labor relations. To make a forecast of the number of all employed, unemployed and informally employed, a polynomial trend was chosen, since it corresponded to the largest value of the approximation coefficient. To obtain a generalized statistical estimation of the trend, the method of analytical equalization was used. According to the analysis and calculated forecast values in the short-term period in the Samara region there is an insignificant positive trend in the number of employees. The number of unemployed in recent years has largely declined, but there has been a significant increase in employment in the informal sector, which reduces the effectiveness of the current state employment policy. To change the unfavorable trend, an integrated approach is needed that combines legislative, administrative and economic measures that will stabilize the situation.