E-commerce perfomance analysis using open data: evidence from Russia

Abstract

Importance: in the context of cardinal and irreversible transformations of the mechanisms of functioning and development of socio-economic systems caused by the impact of the pandemic SARS-CoV-2, a potentially high contribution to ensuring an accelerated recovery of the global economy after one of the strongest recessions since the Depression and World War II, Industry 4.0 can make a difference, in particular, through the digitalization of basic sectors of the economy and e-business development. Purpose: statistical analysis of external and internal factors of e-commerce development in the Russian Federation using data from open sources. Research design: at the first stage, an analysis of the dynamics of the main indicators of the development of e-commerce in the Russian Federation was carried out. In the second stage, a quantitative analysis is carried out using several factor specifications. As explained variables, the paper considered the share of online sales in retail sales, the E-Government Development Index and E-Participation Index. As explanatory variables, the model includes the growth rate of online retail sales in the current and previous years, the level of penetration of online commerce in Russia, the Logistics Efficiency Index, the Human Capital Index, the Online Service Index, and the share of online orders received at the point of issue. We also provide an instrumental variable to account for fixed effects in the dynamics of e-commerce associated with COVID-19. The study covers the period from 2011 to 2021. Results: the COVID-19 pandemic has contributed to an accelerated growth in supply and demand for consumer goods during the period of self-isolation. Based on the results of the analysis of the development of e-commerce in the Russian Federation, the following directions for its development can be formulated: switching from extensive growth factors to intensive ones, development of the logistics system along the path of intensification, reduction of disproportions in the geography of e-commerce distribution, development of regions.