Assessment and prediction of self-sufficiency of the population of Lipetsk region agricultural products

Abstract

Purpose: to study self-sufficiency in agricultural products of the region (on the example of Lipetsk region); to identify factors adversely affecting its further development and forecast of future dynamics. Discussion: the article discusses the evaluation and prediction of the degree of selfsufficiency of the region with basic foodstuffs, with the aim of identifying the factors negatively influencing the development of it. The article contains a formula for calculating the level of self-sufficiency. The authors provide a prognosis of self-provision of the population of the Lipetsk region with the main types of agricultural products based on multiple regression, depending on the volume of production and consumption. Results: authors propose a mechanism for the assessment and prognosis of self-sufficiency of the region with the aim of identifying factors that adversely affect the development (of the subject or the sphere of economy).