Adaptive-targeted prognosis trajectories modeling and the analysis of their stability

Abstract

Purpose: the authors develop adaptive-targeted model of forecasting the expected socio-economic state of the subjects and municipalities on the basis of a combination of adaptation principles and target settings for the future development. Discussion: the authors note that the forecasting tasks at the regional and municipal level in the decision-making field are relevant. Herewith the requirements for the development of forecasts in recent years have increased significantly and, of course, there is a need to update the predictive calculations and bring it to a level that would meet the needs of practitioners. The authors propose the approach to the model construction in which the trajectory targeting of the past period to the expected future changes materialize with the use of the adaptive mechanism. The model includes the special parameters that provide the possibility of multivariate predictive calculations. Additionally, the authors envisage the possibility of stability analysis for the generated model trajectories. Results: the authors justified the necessity and showed the possibility of practical use in predictive calculations for adaptive-targeted models that provide the ability to build polyline predictive trajectories.