Difficult assessment algorithms for achieving target indicators of long-term forecast of socio-economic development

Abstract

Purpose: description of the algorithms developed by the authors for assessing the difficulty of achieving the target indicators of a long-term forecast of socio-economic development. Discussion: projects for the development of strategies for the socio-economic development of regions and municipalities determine priority areas of socio-economic development for a specified period in order to create a favorable environment for human life and activity and the development of entrepreneurship. The strategic priorities of socio-economic development, as a rule, are: raising the level and improving the quality of life of the population; human development; development of high-tech and high-tech industries, export-oriented industrial and agricultural production; preservation of cultural and historical heritage and balanced spatial development of the region. In the process of determining the target values of indicators of socio-economic development, it is necessary to conduct a comprehensive analysis, including an assessment of their adequacy, constructiveness, the available achievement potential, and the availability of internal resources and the difficulties of achieving. The difficulty in achieving the goals can be considered as a special indicator of the correspondence of the predicted target parameters to the established retrospective development paths and the resource potential of target programs aimed at implementing the strategy. Results: the implementation of the algorithms proposed in the work is demonstrated by the example of assessing the difficulty of achieving the target values of the project «Strategies for the socio-economic development of the Voronezh region for the period until 2035». The calculations are based on the Statistica package and software developed by the authors.