Analysis and forecasting of unemployment in assessing socio-economic balance development of the region

Abstract

Purpose: to analyze the dynamics of unemployment as one of the basic parameters of the sustainable socio-economic development of the regions of Russia, to establish the possibilities of its forecasting in regions with different levels of environmental and economic activity. Discussion: in the scientific literature, the problem of unemployment is considered as one of the most important parameters of the sustainable socio-economic development of countries, regions, and other administrative-territorial entities. Unemployment is also one of the most common displays in regional strategic planning. At the same time, the forecasting of unemployment was a significant challenge, since changes in the value of the indicator depended heavily on a variety of economic, social and institutional factors. Results: the authors found that in the regions with the «highest» level of environmental activity, the extremely low unemployment value acts as an obstacle to balanced sustainable development. In the regions of «active» and «very low» activity (most regions of the country), unemployment is not a significant factor in destabilization, various forecast options do not imply its significant changes. In a number of industrial regions, the «average» level of activity is predicted to be unsustainable at values slightly higher than normal. The least favorable unemployment situation was in the regions of the «low» level of activity, where the actual and projected values of the indicator were extremely variable in time, which was an important factor in the possible imbalance and sustainability of their development.