The concept of a two-level approach on modeling of socio-economic processes

Abstract

Purpose: the paper presents a method of decision-making which allows for a quantitative assessment of income depending on the intensity of the future tourist flow, as a complex indicator reflecting the level of the tourist market of a region or a separate object (hotel complex, sanatorium, tourist base, etc.). Discussion: as a practical implementation of the process of managing the number of rooms in a hotel complex, the authors proposed to use a three-level economic and mathematical model, each level of which corresponds to a specific task: at the first level – a pre-forecast research, justification and selection of forecasting models, at the second-a forecast model and the quantitative value of the predicted indicator, at the third-a model for decision-making, the tool of which is the "Decision Tree". Thus, the authors present a complete system of models and methods of decision support. Results: the results of the pre-forecast analysis, the development of forecast models, the construction, adaptation and implementation of economic and mathematical models of the top level will enable the LPR to make effective management decisions, thereby maneuvering material resources, choosing sales technologies and searching for economic solutions, including in tourist and recreational production activities.