Математическое моделирование динамики  бизнес-демографии новых малых инновационных предприятий региона

Татьяна Васильевна Азарнова; Юлия Валентиновна Бондаренко; Татьяна Николаевна Гоголева; Ирина Леонидовна Каширина; Ирина Наумовна Щепина

doi:10.17308/meps.2016.10/1501

Татьяна Васильевна Азарнова Voronezh State University
Юлия Валентиновна Бондаренко Voronezh State University
Татьяна Николаевна Гоголева Voronezh State University
Ирина Леонидовна Каширина Voronezh State University
Ирина Наумовна Щепина Voronezh State University

DOI: https://doi.org/10.17308/meps.2016.10/1501

Keywords: new small innovative enterprises, business demography, population dynamics differential equations, enterprises size distribution function

Abstract

Purpose: The exploration of the theoretical and algorithmic application of mathematical modeling methods aspects, based on the kinetic equation migration, to assess the dynamics of the business demographics of new small innovative enterprises in the region.

Discussion: The new small innovative enterprises play an important role in the establishment of producing bases for the development of the regional economy. The dynamics of the business demographics of small innovative enterprises has a certain specificity for different sectors of the regional economy, associated with the peculiarities of the genesis, growth, and considered closing businesses. The study of the population processes dynamics plays an important role for the development of effective management policies for the regulation of balanced economic growth and the formation of effective employment of the region’s population. Among the main areas of the dynamics study the following studies may also be distinguished: analysis of the distribution of economic entities on the size, construction of generalized life cycle functions, creating, closing elements of the considered set of objects and the analysis of factors that have a direct impact on the behavior of these functions. In the study of selected areas, population approach is effectively working by using hypotheses borrowed from the general conservation laws that are widely used in the natural sciences.

Results: We consider the differential equation for the study of the dynamics of business demographics of the population of small innovative enterprises to steady and unsteady options depending on the growth, creation and closing the population facilities on certain the time. The numerical methods and algorithms for solving differential equations, finding objects by size of population are proposed in the paper. We studied the life cycle of the functions of creating and closing elements of the population and the factors that determine the type and parameters of these functions.

Work is prepared with assistance of RFBR, the project No. 16-06-00535 А