Capacity method of rare events analysis, assumptions when used in the services area

Abstract

Purpose: the article explores the possibility of using the capacity method of rare events analysis in the economy for such various services as the supply of bottled water in an organization, cleaning a car in a car wash, forming tourist charter flights, replacing faulty air conditioners. Discussion: the method involves the analysis of the event formation process, the restoration of the process parameters, their extrapolation and the start of the process to predict future events. Every event formation process in the considered services is described, for which it is assumed to use the method for further events forecasting. Results: the main assumptions, that must be observed for the correct method operation, are formulated. Possible consequences of violation of these assumptions are described. It is shown that even if the method is not suitable for the selected type of events, it can still be used as a nonparametric method for estimating unsteady intensity for applying, for example, the theory of random processes.