Application of the theory of risks in research economic indicators insurance companies received with use nonlinear dynamics methods

Abstract

Purpose: to consider the economic performance of insurance companies in terms of the risk of «underinsurance», namely, to analyze the economic indicators in insurance activities related to the reduction or redistribution of the risks of «underinsurance» between insurers and policyholders. Discussion: as a tool for subsequent forecasting, the possibility of using non-linear paradigm methods is shown, which, unlike statistical methods for assessing the risks of insurance companies, makes it possible to evaluate economic performance over time. A visual representation of the time series will reveal the fundamental characteristics for assessing the economic performance of insurance companies, reflecting the dynamics of the insured persons of the insurance agency, such as memory, cycles and frequency. Results: an analysis of these characteristics will make it possible to predict the likelihood of an «underinsurance» risk. It is critically necessary for the insurance company to take timely steps to increase the reserve fund in order to minimize the amount of lost profit.