Cognitive modeling of socio-economic systems: a retrospective analysis of tools and information systems
Abstract
In the current geopolitical conditions under the economic sanctions imposed on Russia, there is an objective need to form a strategic plan for the development of the economy, and for certain sectors of the economy. For strategic planning it is possible to use various methods and tools. One of the methods of strategic planning is the program-targeted method of planning, which has proven itself as an effective method of foresight. It is possible to speak about failures of planning activity, but these failures were connected not with shortcomings and application of scientifically grounded methods of planning but were connected with efficiency of the administrative apparatus which made decisions. It should be noted that it was in the period of application of science-based planning methods that our country managed to form and develop industrial production of different branches, and the issue of import substitution did not arise then, as all stages of the product life cycle were represented at all enterprises. Currently, the country is facing the problem of strategic development in the context of the imposed economic sanctions. The volume of sanctions is increasing day by day and one can only speculate on the future restrictions imposed. Therefore, there is a need to forecast activities at the level of the whole country, individual industries and enterprises. One of such methods is the method of cognitive modeling based on fuzzy logic. In recent years, the cognitive approach has been increasingly used in the management of socio-economic systems both at home and abroad. This approach involves the use of cognitive principles and methods to understand the behavior of individuals in a system, as well as the interactions and feedback loops between the various components. This article provides a retrospective analysis of the application of the cognitive method to modeling. The information systems which have been developed in our country for realization of tasks of cognitive modeling are considered. And an evaluation of existing software products is made. Also, theoretical materials on the cognitive approach in modeling are presented in order to understand the application of this toolkit for modeling socio-economic systems using elements of fuzzy logic. The material of the article can be useful for beginners in the field of cognitive modeling.
Downloads
References
2. Axelrod R. (1976) The Structure of Decision: Cognitive Maps of Political Elites. Princeton. University Press.
3. Casti J. (1979) Connectivity, Complexity, and Catastrophe in Large-scale Systems. A Wiley – Interscience Publication InternationalInstitute for Applied Systems Analysis. Chichester – New York – Brisbane –Toronto: JOHN WILEY and SONS.
4. GAMA. URL
5. Roberts F. (1978) Graph Theory and its Applications to Problems of Society. Philadelphia: Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics.
6. Solomonoff R. J. (1985) The Time Scale of Artificial Intelligence; Reflections on Social Effects. Human Systems Management. (5). P. 149–153.
7. Moor J. (2006) The Dartmouth College Artificial Intelligence Conference: The Next Fifty years. AI Magazine. 27 (4). P. 87. DOI
8. Ronald R. (2011) Cybernetics, Automata Studies and the Dartmouth Conference on Artificial Intelligence: IEEE Annals of the History of Computing, October–December, 2011. 33 (4). P. 5–16.
9. Tolman E. C. (1948). Cognitive maps in rats and men. Psychological Review. 55 (4). P. 189–208.
10. Abramova N. A. and Avdeeva Z. K. (2008). Cognitive analysis and management of situation development. Problems of methodology, theory and practice. (3). P. 85–87. (in Russian)
11. Vysochina O. S., Danich V. N. and Parkhomenko V. P. (2012) Modeling of production processes at an industrial enterprise by means of simulation modeling system Arena. Radioelectronics, Informatics, Management. (1). P. 82–65. (in Russian)
12. Gorelova G. V. and Kalinichenko A. I. (2018) Toolkit of cognitive modeling of complex systems // Proceedings of XXII International Scientific and Practical Conference “System analysis in design and management” (SAEC-2018), part 1. – SPbGTU: St. Petersburg. P. 399–412. (in Russian)
13. Gorelova G. V., Zakharova E. N. and Radchenko S. A. (2006) Investigation of weakly structured problems of socio-economic systems: a cognitive approach. Rostov-on-Don: Publishing house of Russian State University. (in Russian)
14. Gorelova G. V. and Kalinichenko A. I. (2018) Toolkit for cognitive research of complex systems and human factor risk. Cognitive Modeling: Proceedings of the Sixth International Forum on Cognitive Modeling, 30 September – 07 October 2018, Tel Aviv, Israel. In 2 parts. Part 2: Cognitive Modeling in Science, Culture, Education: Proceedings (CMSCE-2018)”. Rostov on/D: Foundation for Science and Education. pp. 265- 279. (in Russian)
15. Gorelova G. V. and Kalinichenko A. I. (2018) Modeling competition with the help of a software system of cognitive modeling. Vestnik Adygei State University. Series: Economics. (2). P. 114–125. (in Russian)
16. Gorelova, G.V. and Pankratova N. D. (2015) Innovative development of socio-economic systems on the basis of foresight methodologies and cognitive modeling. Kiev : Naukova Dumka. (in Russian)
17. Kalinichenko A. I. (2019) On the software system of cognitive modeling of complex systems as an element of artificial intelligence. Proceedings of XXIII International Scientific and Practical Conference “System analysis in design and management” (SAEC-2019), part 3. – SPbGTU: St. Petersburg. P. 471–478. (in Russian)
18. Kalinichenko A. I. (2019) Application of cognitive tools to the study of labor aspects of quality of life. Voprosy ekonomiki i upravleniya. 2(18). URL
19. Karimov M. Kh. (2017) Application of methods of system dynamics to the study of the peculiarities of the risk management system in the organization. Problems of modern science and education. 24(106). P. 13–16. (in Russian)
20. Kleiner G. B., Rybachuk M. A. and Ushakov D. V. (2021) Mentality of economic agents and institutional changes in search of an equilibrium model. Modern economic theory. Terra Economicus. 19(4). P. 6–20 DOI
21. Korostelev D. A., Lagerev D. G. and Podvesovsky A. G. (2008) Decision Support System Based on Fuzzy Cognitive Models: IGLA. Eleventh National Conference on Artificial Intelligence with International Participation KII-2008, Dubna, 28 September – 3 October 2008. (3). P. 327–329. (in Russian)
22. Kulinich A. A. (2002) Cognitive decision support system “Kanva”. Software Products and Systems. (3). P. 25–28. (in Russian)
23. Kulinich A. A. and Maksimov V. I. (1998) System of conceptual modeling of socio-political situations “Compass”. Collection of papers “Modern Management Technologies”, Мoscow. P. 115– 123. (in Russian)
24. Kulba V. V., Kononov D. A., Kovalevskiy S. S., Kosyachenko S. A., Nizhegorodtsev R. M. and Chernov I. V. (2002) Scenario Analysis of the Dynamics of Social and Economic Systems Behavior (Scientific publication). Мoscow, IPU RAN publ. (in Russian)
25. Maksimov V. I. (2001) Cognitive Technologies – from Ignorance to Understanding. Collected Works. Cognitive Analysis and Situation Analysis Management”, (CASC’2001): Proc. Int. Conf., T. 1. P. 4–18. (in Russian)
26. Program for Cognitive Modeling and Analysis of Socio-Economic Systems of Regional Level. Certificate of state registration of computer programs No. 2018661506 of 07.09.2018.
27. Silov V. B. (1995) Strategic decision-making in a fuzzy environment. Moscow, INNPRO-RES publ. (in Russian)
28. Yakimov I. M., Kirpichnikov A. P. and Trusfus M. V. (2016). Simulation modeling in the Repast Simphony system. // Bulletin of technological university. (19). P. 609–613. (in Russian)
Условия передачи авторских прав in English
