Support of managerial decision-making aimed at protection against flooding

Abstract

The article considers the problem of safety management in flood prone regions. It suggests models of decision-making under uncertain conditions and an architecture for information and analytical systems that integrates new digital economy technologies. The article shows that the introduction of new digital economy technologies into the management process helps to organise the effective interaction between the population, rescue units, and authorities at different levels, when preparing for possible floods and mitigating their negative consequences. In our study, we considered the use of end-to-end decision support tools in the management of flood control measures. The article briefly describes the business processes of managing a region’s safety. It presents a model of the organisation of information resources and the results of its practical implementation in the Voronezh Region. Since predictive models have different input and output data and processing algorithms, in our study we focused on containerized computing. We designed a universal analytical platform that can solve various problems relating to the safety management of the region and assess the extent of flooding during spring floods and spring breakups, the risk of accidents at hydro-technical utilities, etc. To perform a comprehensive risk assessment, we need to rank the regions by the degree of vulnerability to adverse conditions, and monitor their readiness for emergency responses. The novelty of our approach is that the information resources include not only data tables, reference books, and classifiers, but also information about dangerous processes, their consequences, and ways to mitigate the negative consequences of emergency situations. The article details the ontology of the structural data model, presents formalized descriptions of the simulation results, and describes the information that determines decisions made in a specific situation.