Risk-based management of the design of organisational and technical systems based on simulation models of their functioning

Abstract

The article proposes a methodology for the design and application of simulation models in the development of a risk-based management system for the design of organisational and technical systems (OTS) that are created and function under conditions of uncertainty. Risk is understood as one of the properties of the quality of a decision made in a situation with uncertain outcomes. This property characterises the possibility and consequences of failure. A distinctive feature of the proposed methodology is that it can be used to assess the quality of decisions made during the design process, identify, if necessary, the causes of their unsatisfactory quality, and develop corrective actions to eliminate these causes. Assessment of the quality of management decisions made when creating an OTS is based on the analysis of the overall risk indicators characterising the degree of failure to achieve the goal. The indicators are the probabilities of failure to reach the set goals. They are determined by analysing the probability densities of the parameters characterising these goals. These parameters are obtained as a result of the simulation modelling of the functioning of the OTS, taking into account the impact of the entire set of undesirable random factors on the said indicators. The article presents the results of a computational experiment on the assessment and correction of the indicators of decision quality when designing an organisational and technical system. It shows that the simulation modelling of the functioning of a created object can be used to organise an iterative process for managing the final result at the design stage. The described methodology for the design and application of simulation models for assessing the quality indicators of management decisions can also be used to determine the way decisions can be altered in order to eliminate the causes of failure to achieve the required quality.