Voronezh Region labour market under sanctions: analysis, forecast, regulation instruments
Abstract
Importance: economic sanctions aiming to destabilise the Russian economy have been imposed by a wide range of Western countries. Sanctions measures have been particularly acute in 2022. Forecasts of their impact on national and regional labour markets in March-April 2022, as presented in the academic and publicist literature, were very contradictory. Concerns were primarily about a possible increase in unemployment as a result of job losses in the high-tech sector of the economy. The baseline labour market indicators, despite generally optimistic forecasts of their dynamics, show a need for a range of preventive regulation tools. Purpose: in order for the federal and regional authorities to take effective measures to regulate the labour market, it is necessary to analyze the actual changes which have taken place in its various segments, as this enables us to assess the ongoing processes in a concentrated form. In this connection, the article sets the goal of a detailed analysis and forecasting of the basic parameters of the labor market of a large old industrial region – Voronezh region and substantiation of instruments of its preventive regulation. Research design: justification of preventive regulation tools is based on the assessment and prediction of the dynamics of the basic parameters of the labor market of the Voronezh region in conditions of sanctions. The basic parameters are: number of employees (thou. people); employment rate of population aged 15 years and over, %; number of registered unemployed (thou. people); registered unemployment rate (%); number of unemployed by ILO methodology (thou. people); unemployment rate by ILO methodology (%). In addition, we analyzed: the dynamics of vacancies, wages, macroeconomic indicators of the Russian labour market, hidden forms of underemployment (unpaid leave, forced outages, etc.). The research uses monographic, statistical, heuristic and logical methods. Results: the results of the survey show a stable state of the basic parameters of the labour market in Voronezh region. The indicators of employment, registered and full-time unemployment in the sanctioned period have even improved in comparison with 2021. Nevertheless, the presence of structural shifts in the national and regional economy, a wide range of hidden forms of underemployment, reduction in the profitability of enterprises in a number of segments of the real and financial sectors of the economy, reduction in effective demand of the population and other negative processes allow to predict different variants of further developments in the labour market. The article presents two variants of the forecast of the dynamics of the basic indicators of the labour market. The optimistic forecast does not require any strengthening of the regional labour market regulations. The pessimistic forecast assumes the necessity to prevent the growth of unemployment by about 20 thousand people with the intensification of the instruments aimed at the structural transformation of supply and demand on the labor market.
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References
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