Typological zoning of barley production in Voronezh region

Abstract

Creating quality forecasts of crop yields is quite a challenge, because productivity is a complex index. Its magnitude influenced by factors whose values can vary territorially. In order to improve the quality of forecasts is necessary to allocate more homogeneous parts of the territory, i.e. to hold zoning. As a result of the calculations we were able to make a division of the Voronezh region into five classes regions, based on barley yield data for the past 37 years. Results of zoning by using fuzzy algorithms of classification were analyzed and interpreted. It has been shown that natural and climatic features have certain influence on the growth and development of spring barley. Comparative analysis of formed classes shows the role of individual combinations of agroecological conditions in reaching a certain level of productivity. Consideration of these factors will provide more reliable forecasts of yields of this crop in the future. The conclusions, reached at a meaningful level, confirmed by statistical analysis, which was performed using a regression model with dummy variables. Trends of the time series of yields marked by singular spectrum analysis (SSA) also show homogeneity of selected classes. n each of the classes in the course of zoning were identified typical objects - areas having strongly pronounced values of determining factors. The proposed approach to zoning can reduce various costs during the forecasts: it is enough to build a forecast for a typical classes of regions to assess levels of production and economic indicators of grain production in the rest of «atypical» regions. These values will be determined by special adjustments of indicators of yields. The results of typological zoning will increase the reliability of forecasting yields this crop.