Forecasting yields of winter wheat and barley for voronezh region for 2015

Abstract

Purpose: development and improvement methods of forecasting in AIC management. Discussion: traditional forecasting methods are not always adequate. Presented results of forecasting are based on the assumption that levels of the time series are some projection of a dynamic system, which «produce» this time series, and the simultaneous consideration of time series, which have the same or sufficiently similar dynamic models of the formation, provides a more reliable variant of the forecast. Preview Analysis of time series of yields of individual crops led to the conclusion about fractal nature of their conduct. This determined the choice of the appropriate algorithm. In order to get forecasts, we used the random iterated function systems (RIFS ). Results: One of the features of our method is the multivariate result. We proposed a method of expert estimations to determine the final variant of the forecast taking into account new circumstances such as changes in the conditions of cultivation, carrying out intensive agricultural activities and other. It is necessary to consider possible changes in external factors. Perspective balance development, based on forecasting of grain production allows to determine the intraeconomic needs, volumes of grain for implementation, to create a reserve funds, to adjust the structure of the herd.