Analysis of development of the demographic situation in Lipetsk region: forecast and fact

Abstract

Purpose: The article is devoted to the analysis of the conformity of statistical forecasts in the demographic situation on the example of the forecast of the number and composition of the population of the Lipetsk region for the period up to 2016. Discussion: the forecast of the number and composition of the population of the Lipetsk region for the period 1998-2015, carried out by the State Statistics Committee of Russia; a comparative analysis of the forecast and actual data was carried out, the dynamics of the number and composition of the population of the region was studied step by step. Results: the authors of the article based on the comparison of predicted and actual statistics on the number and composition of the population in the region conclude that the forecast of population dynamics in the Lipetsk region, based on the decline in the number of people, was mostly justified, but it was more optimistic than the current situation , and the actual decline in the population exceeded the forecast. Despite a certain degree of discrepancy between the estimated parameters of the estimated population and the actual, the population's forecast is needed to assess possible ways of developing demographic processes in the country and in certain regions as a basis for decision-making in the formation of the socio-economic policy of the state.