Forecasting accommodation and development of production of animal production in the region

Abstract

Purpose: To develop a forecast for the location and development of the production of the main types of livestock products in the TAC. Discussion: In the process of research, the theoretical and methodological provisions for forecasting the current location and development of livestock production have been refined and supplemented, due to the agrarian sphere itself due to the influence of natural and climatic and economic factors of production, dependence on the climatic zones of the specifics of animal husbandry and the production of its main products. Structural shifts in the distribution and development of the production of the main livestock products in the TSCH were revealed, characterized by a significant increase in the number of pigs and poultry, pork and poultry production that exceeded the pre-reform level, with simultaneous disproportions in the distribution of cattle, cows, beef and milk production. Results: The forecast for the location and development of the production of the main types of livestock products in the TSCH is based on a comprehensive assessment of the state and trends of their development and the simultaneous use of a set of methods: trend correlation-regression, simulation modeling and scenario forecasting, taking into account the influence of a variety of economic and natural factors.